I know of a swarm that has been on same tree for two to three days. It is too high for a ladder but if I had time I could try the bucket on a pole trick. I just got a swarm trap and some swarm lure. Would I be wasting my time to set a trap with lure and if I try it should I set it really close to the swarm. Same height and just right in front of them. I would just try to go get them but have to work. I was using one of the traps that are round with a hole in the lid anyone have a favorite way to mount or hang them to reduce blowing in the wind.
Usually if a swarm has been in the same location for more than a day or two, they have started to draw comb, the queen laying, and they aren't going anywhere. It wouldn't hurt to try and lure them with a trap, but at this point I think your chances are reduced.
Down here in southeast, Louisiana swarms rest from 1-2 days but I've caught many that people claimed were there 3 days, and a few that pushed the 5 day mark, usually the latter ocurred when a front or inclimate weather moved in and caused the bees to hunker down until finally leaving.
The longer they are there, they could possibly start setting up shop.
It wouldn't hurt to put your swarm trap up there with them, with some lure and a little chunk of old comb, they just may move in, but don't bank on it, the scouts have probably already picked out their new home.
I like hanging my traps like this http://picasaweb.google.com/pyxicephalus/May102009#5334266909623495730
http://picasaweb.google.com/pyxicephalus/April52009#5321412224575406706
http://picasaweb.google.com/pyxicephalus/April52009#5321412257542691394
(http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/261/cimg0051h.th.jpg) (http://img13.imageshack.us/my.php?image=cimg0051h.jpg)
Of course if you could secure them like this wind isn't as much a factor http://www.goldendelighthoney.com/Swarm_trap.jpg
...JP