This is my first time beekeeping and I don't know very much. I have italian bees
Your bees will decide that as long as you did the right thing and fed them syrup if they are low on stores and made sure your might count is low a large cluster is good going into winter easier for them to raise brood in spring and keep it warm. Chris
Colbees, we're going into spring .....I think :-D
To answer your question, it varies a lot and there's not a whole lot you can do about numbers in the fall but pray. People successfully winter bees anywhere from 5 frames of bees to 3 deeps worth of bees. For full sized hives, I like to have the hive packed with bees by fall. So much so that I worry about trying to squeeze them down to the brood box(s) for winter.
People seem to recommend packing the bees down into a box representative of their numbers. If you end up with a poor season with not even a deep full of bees, you might want to winter in a nuc or fill up empty space with insulation.
The important thing is, no matter what size, make sure they have food over their heads.