winter as 2 single 8 deeps or combine?

[windfall]

I was all set to combine two walk away splits last friday. As I went through the weaker hive looking for the queen I saw that what I had thought previously was an empty frame had in fact been laid up in eggs. And that all the empties in the brood frames (where chalk mummies had been removed) had been cleaned out and relaid.

Well, I didn't find the queen. So I just closed it back up. But it got me wondering if I might not be better off wintering each hive separately.
I
I know by combining them I stand a better chance of hitting spring with a colony that starts strong and build fast. But do I stand a better chance of going into spring with a live colony to work with by wintering 2 smaller groups....Just call them 8 frame nucs?

[FRAMEshift]

I don't know your climate but even here in NC I would probably do a combine if I were as close to winter as you are.  Or if you have other hives, you could equalize and bring these "nucs" up to a more survivable size.  Yes, people do successfully overwinter hives of the size you have, but your odds are better with a larger hive.

[windfall]

  Yes, people do successfully overwinter hives of the size you have, but your odds are better with a larger hive.

I guess comparing that probability of survival was what I am inquiring about, at least in regards to hive size.

I know lots of people are successfully wintering nucs from 4-8 frames around here and throughout the north. Do people generally see a much higher winter loss in their nuc colonies than in their larger hives? Obviously there must be a size threshold on the smaller end at which point things become truly improbable. I am guessing this is 4 frames as I don't see common talk about anything less than that.

I am inclined to go ahead with the combine, but now the choice of which queen to keep is less clear. Perhaps which ever continues to be the best at hiding ;)

All other variables aside, how much