Swarm from smoke?

[Orlando]

Hello I am in lower NY (hudson valley). Goldenrod, purple loosestrife in bloom.

My hives have been really working and alot of activity in and outside of hives.

The last two times I have worked my hives with smoke (1 week ago and today), I have found a swarm nearby on both occassions. Both good sized swarms. Caught both and put in boxes.

Any correlation between the smoking and swarming? Or was it just due to the nectar flow or both? Odds of them making it?

Thanks so much.

[iddee]

No connection. Swarms begin prep weeks before leaving the hive.

Here, maybe a 10% chance they would make it with heavy feeding.

N.Y., I would kill the queen and combine with another hive.

[millipede]

I need some queens lol
Send them to me.