Why feral bee don't survive

[GSF]

Thought this might be interesting. I remember something like this on here a few years back. Do honey bees survive in the wild? No. We see them so they must survive right? (not really) If they survive then this is how they would turn out. Starting on the left you come out of winter with one strong hive. By the end of your first year you'll have what you had plus the increase 1+2=3. The second year and forward you'll multiply by 2. I've had early swarms that issued swarms so 2 per colony isn't too far out there.



1          +          2          =          3          +          0          =              3          end of year one
3           x          2          =          6          +          3          =              9          Y2
9           x          2          =        18          +          9           =            27         Y3
27         x          2          =        54          +          27         =             81         Y4
81         x          2          =       162         +          81         =            243        Y5
243       x          2          =       486         +          243        =           729         Y6
729       x          2          =      1458        +          729        =          2187         Y7
2187     x          2          =       4374       +        2187        =          6561         Y8
6561     x          2          =     13,122      +        6561        =       19,683         Y9
19,683  x          2          =     39,366      +     19,683        =       59,049         Y10

[bwallace23350]

I would wager that most do not survive but a fair number do for a few years or so. I know of two hives that have been going strong for around 4 years now.

[Acebird]

If feral bees didn't survive then the honey bee would go extinct.  There is not enough genes in managed hive to survive the variations in nature.  Eventually all managed hives would crash.

[D Coates]

I would wager that most do not survive but a fair number do for a few years or so. I know of two hives that have been going strong for around 4 years now.

It's more of churn.  The hive survives a year or 2 then dies.  The better questions is do they reproduce enough to propagate the species without us?  I don't know.  I know of a few hives that have been around a few years but undoubtedly die over winter only to be restarted.  How many swarms did they cast before they died?  Where did the swarm come from that reoccupied their nest?  I'd bet they're treading water via feral hive numbers but this is pure conjecture on my part.

[GSF]

Well, I'm kinda saying yeah they do and no they don't. I'm saying they do because we see them in the wild and think they're feral. I'm saying no they don't because if you start with one colony then 10 years from now you should have at least 59,049 colonies close by. If only 100 survived from that number then that's not surviving.

[Psparr]

Well, I'm kinda saying yeah they do and no they don't. I'm saying they do because we see them in the wild and think they're feral. I'm saying no they don't because if you start with one colony then 10 years from now you should have at least 59,049 colonies close by. If only 100 survived from that number then that's not surviving.

Maybe that is surviving. Obviously we as humans taking those losses wouldn't be surviving, but to them it may be.

[crmauch]

Well, I'm kinda saying yeah they do and no they don't. I'm saying they do because we see them in the wild and think they're feral. I'm saying no they don't because if you start with one colony then 10 years from now you should have at least 59,049 colonies close by. If only 100 survived from that number then that's not surviving.

If 100 survived over 10 years starting from 1 colony that would be tremendous survival!!!  That's a 100 fold increase in 10 years. And you're assuming 100% survival and where would all those colonies go?

I read a recent interview with Thomas Seeley, he had done a recent survey (I believe in Ithaca, NY area) and compared it to a similar survey he had done in the 70s(?) in the same area before most of the problems hit.   He found the density of feral hives to nearly identical now as it was then.  And the genetics showed that they were from a very limited stock of bees (i.e. feral).  The article is here: http://americanbeejournal.com/some-honey-bee-colonies-adapt-in-wake-of-deadly-mites/

The article mentioned the density of hives as 2.5 per square mile.  Remember in the wild a limiting factor for honeybees is finding a cavity (generally a hollow tree). 

Seeley also did a survival study of swarms.  If their initial space is adequate (around 40 liters) I think survival was around 20-30% (I don't have the article so my numbers may be way off) but if the space is barely adequate (~15 liters) I think survivorship was less than 1%.  (See his book "Honeybee Democracy")  And those were numbers for hives that found space to live.

So we're not being overrun by bees, but I think there's every reason to believe they can survive without (or maybe "in spite of") us.

 

[Acebird]

I read a recent interview with Thomas Seeley, he had done a recent survey (I believe in Ithaca, NY area) and compared it to a similar survey he had done in the 70s(?) in the same area before most of the problems hit.   He found the density of feral hives to nearly identical now as it was then. 

We were very lucky to have Tom Seeley speak at our last bee meeting.  The topic was How bees swarms.  I read his book "Honeybee Democracy" and much of it was repeated in the lecture.  I was talking to him after the lecture and he said something that floored me, "I think beekeepers would have been far better off if they have never put chemicals in the hive."  I gave him a thumbs up but I still can't believe he made that remark.

[Michael Bush]

>Do honey bees survive in the wild? No.

Do humans survive?  No.  If none of us every died the planet would be several miles deep in human beings...  I don't think that's a relevant way to look at survival though... although it's an accurate way to look at how it averages out and always will average out.  There are feral bees out there surviving.  There are feral bees that die.  There are domestic bees surviving.  There are domestic bees dying.  Seeley's work pretty much shows the density of feral bees has been pretty constant over the decades...

[tejones121]

Survival of a species is different than survival of individual members of a species. No individuals live forever, but as long as the population density, over a period of time, remains strong enough to propogate that species, then it has survived or is surviving.